Sunday, September 22, 2013

RBI AND NEW GOVERNOR

In the past few days or rather weeks almost everything has gone wrong for the Indian economy . GDP growth rate lowest in last 10 years , Rupee touching all time lows almost every day , high CAD ,etc. Amidst all this gloom RAGHURAM RAJAN was made the new RBI governor .An IIT DELHI + IIM A +MIT ,(Ph.D) pass out, the best pedigree one can ask for a RBI Governor.  The market gave a thumbs up to the decision of making him the governor as he is seen as one who is more growth oriented . His predecessor D subbarao ,was seen as anti growth Governor which is not entirely true. One of the first thing Mr. Rajan did was to postpone the date of Mid Quater Policy Review after the announcement of FOMC meeting , which was quite pragmatic as a very important decision was to be taken by federal reserve about QE tapering. From the time Ben Bernake said that Fed would start QE tapering sooner than expected ,all the emerging economies' currencies went for a tailspin. Indian , Brazil are among the worst performers . Due to all this there was huge expectation from him . Though during his maiden interaction with the press he made clear that he has no magic wand to solve all the economic problems of the country. Then came his maiden policy decision . He gave a rude sock to the market by increasing the Repo rate. All other decisions of scaling back the emergency measures taken to control the fluctuation in the currency markets were on expected lines.But the question remains that has anything changed at RBI. Decision making at RBI is still not based on data science . There is absolutely no reason to explain the increase the repo rate . How can repo rate affect retail inflation. The rise in inflation is due to the increase in vegetable prices and fuel price . And by increasing the repo rate nothing is going to happen . These prices can only be controlled by removing the supply bottlenecks and constraints. An increase in repo rate at a time when GDP growth rate is at its lowest will further dampen the mood of the investor. Although remaining  decision will impact the cost of borrowing to the banks but what is more important is to give correct signals to the market . An increase in repo rate is not one of them. This shows that nothing has changed at RBI . It still considers Inflation targeting as its main aim and not the growth. P.Chidambram once said he is walking alone on the path to put India back on growth path . It seems he is still walking alone  even after making Mr Rajan RBI Governor.